Elections are unpredictable, and so are swing states. Swing states, or battleground states, shift every term and often determine the outcome of elections.
Swing states reflect their populations of conflicting Democrats, Republicans, Independent and undecided voters. Because of the variability in voter preferences, campaign candidates spend much of their resources and allocate extra time to these places in an attempt to win their electoral college votes.
Many historic elections were decided by swing states’ decisions. In the 1992 election, Democrat Bill Clinton’s victory over Republican George Bush turned the reliably republican states of California, Colorado and Maryland into the democratic strongholds they now are. Today, crucial swing states are generally found in the Southern and Midwest regions of the country.
The 2024 election hinged on the following seven swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Both candidates had their eyes on Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes and both spent a total of $538 million in broadcast advertising for the swing state. Harris didn’t have a chance of winning the election once Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin swung in favor of Trump.
While a swing state may change from election to election, the outcome of “safe” states is highly predictable. California, Washington and Vermont are reliably blue states while Texas, Alabama and South Carolina are red states. Reliably blue states tend to be on the coasts, where more urban developments are located, while red states tend to have more rural voters and are located in the middle of the country.
Despite swing states’ reputation in elections, political parties are not deterred from upholding grassroot efforts, in hopes of swaying the tide of voters to their side. For example, democrats from California traveled to swing states like Arizona and Nevada this election to promote Harris’ campaign to undecided voters.
“I mean, it’s not normal to get on a bus, to go and knock on doors in a different state. That’s not normal. But you know what’s normal? Caring about the country and your families and what you want to see,” Rep. Jimmy Gomez, D-CA, said to Ana Ibarra from CalMatters.
California Republicans had a different approach: they promoted candidates up for election in the House of Representatives, so that their local efforts would give them power at the federal level.
“The best way for California Republicans to support President Trump is to secure a GOP House majority to help him implement his agenda in Washington,” spokesperson for the California Republican Party Ellie Hockenbury wrote to CalMatters.
Voter turnout is critical regardless of whether or not you live in a swing or safe state. Every vote can literally change a state’s identity. In the 2020 elections, President Joe Biden won six of the seven states by no more than 12,000 votes.
Tight state margins are paramount to candidates, however approximately 89 million eligible Americans did not vote in the 2024 elections. Unlike in the 2020 elections, where voter turnout was 66.4% –that’s 17 million more people voting–becoming one of the biggest spikes in U.S. history since 1900. The candidates, as in most elections, are the driving factor of voter turnout; as well as the COVID-19 pandemic expanding vote by mail.
“There is no doubt in my mind that Donald Trump is the reason we saw record turnout in 2020,” Michael McDonald, professor at University of Florida and executor of Election Lab. “Whether you love him or hate him, he drives passion and drives people to vote.”
When it comes down to it, voting is a right that can determine a state’s identity as well as its new president. An action or lack of voting affect both sides of the coin.
