EYE 2 EYE Podcast: The 2020 election predictions and opinions

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Guest and Opinion Editor for the Talon Hunter Keaster discusses with host Hayden Brown about the current election and what it’s been looking like. Tune in to hear their opinions and the unprecedented events that have happened during this close race for presidency.

Hayden Brown: Hi! Welcome to the new EYE 2 EYE podcast. I’m your host, Hayden Brown, and I’m here today with Hunter Keaster, and today we’re going to be talking about the election [of] 2020 — one of the most tense political elections we’ve had in a very, very long time, and we have our thoughts on how it’s been playing out how the voting has been tallied, and what we think the outcome is going to be. So Hunter, let’s start us off: what do you think is going to happen in the next couple days, weeks [or] however long this takes with the political election? 

Hunter Keaster: Yeah, for sure. I mean, days, weeks [or] hours right now? It’s all happening very quickly, but right now, we’re recording this at 3:40 p.m. on November 4, so for a little update, according to Google’s map, which I believe they get from the AP, currently, Joe Biden is sitting at 264 electoral college votes to Donald Trump’s 214. And that is because just very recently, I believe it’s like two hours ago, AP called Michigan in favor of Joe Biden. And that was at a vote margin of it’s looking like about 70,000 votes. So you know, Biden, could get Nevada, which is six electoral college votes, which pushes them over to 270. If you got Pennsylvania, which Donald Trump is right now leading in, that would also push him over the edge. If Trump were to capture Pennsylvania and Nevada, then he would win the election. Yeah, I mean, it’s looking closer than I think a lot of people were expecting, that’s for sure. 

Hayden Brown: It really depends on how the rest plays out. Because if you take the electoral college votes from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska, which are the four states that are still left red, that haven’t been tallied, yet, that’s only 268 electoral college votes, that would tally to President Trump’s total, which means that Joe Biden would still win the election, even if Nevada stays blue. 

Hunter Keaster: Oh, so you’re saying …  you’re saying even if Trump were to get Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Alaska

Hayden Brown: it’s still not enough to put them over.

Hunter Keaster: Oh, really? I felt like I went through this before. Wait. I have to check out the districts real quick. I’m forgetting how the congressional districts ended up voting. 

Hayden Brown: I mean, it’s an incredibly tight race. Right now, Nevada is only ahead with Joe Biden by about 8,000 votes. It is a very, very slim race right now, and there are lots of talks about voter fraud with the mail in ballots and everything is up in the air. Like, I think reported a little while ago, they said that the AP called Arizona way too quickly for Joe Biden, and that there [were] a lot of rising poll numbers for Donald Trump. Trump is currently suing Pennsylvania and Michigan and asking Wisconsin to revote and recount their will not vote, recount their numbers. The Trump campaign is continuing to question the validity of these votes with major increases in states like Michigan and Wisconsin while we all slept last night, at like, two, three in the morning. It was very, very late stuff very, very late changes in.

Hunter Keaster: And I mean, I just actually checked up on the congressional districts for Nebraska and Maine because they have these split votes, not winner take all. And yeah, you’re correct. I guess I didn’t do the math right. When I was looking at this on my own because yeah, even if right now, Trump were to hold the four leaves that he currently has, which are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia and Alaska, which is looking like he may very well do. If Biden were to win Nevada, he would win by reaching Biden would win by reaching 70 electoral votes to Trump’s 268. So yeah, you’re correct. I mean, if the leads hold how they are right now, it would be a Joe Biden victory because Joe Biden is currently leading in Nevada, but, you know, we got 75% reporting. And also, I don’t know if you saw but Nevada is election integrity committee or the council tweeted earlier that they won’t really be releasing any results until I believe it is 8 a.m. or 10 a.m …  or, no: 9 a.m on Thursday, which is tomorrow at the time of recording this. 

Hayden Brown: I think it was [Channel] eight news now reported that instead of relaying the results until tomorrow, Nevada said that they were going to release their official results later today because of high demand. 

Hunter Keaster: Yeah, I saw that report a little bit ago, but it was like To me it was like that it was unclear. And then it might only be that one like northern County, and that we might still not know the final results. But either way, I mean right now Nevada. Yeah, like I think you mentioned earlier, it’s 8000 votes, like we’re not talking about a, you know, a landslide. It’s [a] very close state right now. Yeah, it’ll be interesting. And I don’t know if you had a similar experience to this, but I remember going to sleep last night, around probably 11 p.m. And Donald Trump had the lead in Michigan, and in Wisconsin, which are now both called for Joe Biden. So it kind of just goes to show, you know, things can change pretty quickly. 

Hayden Brown: There were both very significant changes to if you look [at] the graphs [that] charted how both Donald Trump and Biden’s tallies were being totaled, there is just a vertical line that shows Biden overtake Trump, with these with these [votes]. With these voter numbers. I’ve got a question for you, with the current state of how everything is with Donald Trump’s administration suing states because they think that there was a [total miss]. What do you think that could mean for the totals that are about to go into this election? Do you think that there might be a recount that ends up swinging the vote in Donald Trump’s favor? 

Hunter Keaster: Um  yeah, so I do know about some of the lawsuits, like I believe that they’re the big big one is happening in Wisconsin, which was decided by 20 thousand votes, which is only, you know, point 7% difference, but, uh, you know, I did see something that was a recount is occurred 30 times in presidential election history. And I think it was like, it’s only been a couple of times where the recount is made, like a statistically significant difference as to flip the state. But, you know, there is always the possibility of if a state court disputes the whatever ruling happens, and it, you know, moves up the system to the Supreme Court, it’s like, you know, who knows where the, if the Supreme Court would even want to take it if it’s on their docket, because then they’re, you know, going into very political waters. It’s in the Supreme Court’s best interest to stay out of these kind[s] of matters, because as much as they can, it’ll preserve their integrity, right, because like, the last thing the Supreme Court wants is to be looked at as some partisan institution. So I think that definitely the  I mean, it’s in the Supreme Court’s best interest to just stay out of it to not rule one way or the other. But who knows, if it comes down to it, they may end up getting appealed up to them. 

Hayden Brown: I think that’s the biggest fear that the Supreme Court is having right now. Because last night, Donald Trump [was] in the middle of his speech, where a lot of people say that he declared the victory of the election. He also said that he was planning on taking this case to the Supreme Court with the absentee ballots that hadn’t come in yet. 

Hunter Keaster: Yeah. And then, you know, that’s another big issue is that states are allowed to count ballots that are coming in after election day if they were postmarked on election day, and I don’t know all the state laws that have to do with that. But it would be interesting to see the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Constitution there. You know, if that power would be up to the state legislatures, who that falls on, you know, I still think very uncertain[tly] … very interesting times. 

Hayden Brown: It’s going to be very interesting. I’m almost more curious to see how this, this pointing fingers scandal is voting stuff goes than the actual election because there are a lot of fingers being pointed a lot of different directions, like, um, I think it was this afternoon, um, Trump ballots were apparently marked with Sharpies in the state of Arizona and a lot of Trump supporters were saying that they thought that their their votes were disqualified. By the state

Hunter Keaster: Yeah, I did see, I forget. Was it a pundit that tweeted that? I’m blanking on who tweeted that out. But from my understanding of the tweet, it was basically that any ballots signed with a sharpie or marked with a sharpie would be invalidated. And then that somehow made the jump to say that like that would disproportionately affect Trump voters, which I’m not entirely sure that type of like the connection there. But there Yeah, I mean, there’s tons of stuff. You got the poll watchers like the transparency, transparency laws, with, like, both sides being able to see the recount or what’s happening. 

Hayden Brown: I think Detroit ended up putting walls around their recounts forum for absentee ballots. 

Hunter Keaster: Yeah, I didn’t see that. So there was a I saw some videos on Twitter that there was a polling site or I guess, counting sight in Detroit that was counting absentee ballots. And I saw there were some demonstrators chanting [to] stop the vote, to try and get them to stop presumably until these transparency laws would take effect to have people in there. I didn’t, I wasn’t quite sure on the information I was seeing mixed information on if lawyers from both sides were getting allowed in, or [if] lawyers from both sides weren’t allowed in there. And like, if the reason why they’re putting up the walls was to, like, stop the distraction. I mean, it was just, there’s just so much, you know, conflicting information right now, it’s kind of got to wait and see, I guess, 

Hayden Brown: Alright, I guess we got to close it off with the final question, Who do you think is going to take home the victory after this election? 

Hunter Keaster: Um, you know  I’m really hesitant to make any, any predictions considering, you know, so many people were proposed wrong in 2016. I think you know, anything can really happen. If I had to bet my life on it, I would say that right now, Joe Biden is looking very poised to take the presidency assuming that there is no kind of, you know, fishy business with any sort of fraud or anything like that, just assuming that how the votes are looking now or how they stay? Assuming you know, he does get Wisconsin and that recount stance, assuming he does get Michigan and those lawsuits stand. Like you said, you know, if Trump took all these four states that he had the lead in, I think that he Yeah, like he’d still be at 268. It just seems like it’s a better chance right now, for Biden, Biden seems to have more paths. You know, he can get Nevada or he could get Pennsylvania, he could get both to win. Trump has to get all five of these remaining states that are left up. So you know, it poses a greater challenge for him. I think.

Hayden Brown: I agree. I think if everything stays as it is, and a lot of the scandal stuff ends up dying out very soon, then I think Joe Biden really does have a good shot at winning this election. But as it is always, it’s very much in the air. And I’m very honestly surprised that it’s as close as it is. 

Hunter Keaster: Yeah, I mean, I think I think definitely a lot of people are surprised by that. But like you said, just now if the scandal stuff kind of dies out. I mean, I’m not too sure if that’s going to happen. You know, in 2000. Bush, we had Bush v Gore. And I would argue that was a much less divided time in American history. You know, I think politics was kind of I mean, it was always, you know, always big divides, but I think it was a little bit more civil than what we have right now. So I wouldn’t doubt that this issue could go to the Supreme Court. Yeah, I mean, it’ll be interesting. Actually, this is an interesting legal issue for anybody that is kind of interested in that side of things. It’s like how the Supreme Court would actually value the precedent set by Bush v. Gore. Because the precedent by Bush v. Gore, of course, had to do with new election laws, you know, states’ jurisdiction when it comes to election laws. And so it’s like, how do they weigh that precedent? I guess we’ll have to see, you know, what lawsuits actually get up there. 

Hayden Brown: I 100% agree. It’s gonna be very, very interesting to see what the, what the American people think about this issue. Particularly, it’s very interesting too, with them. I mean, even the popular vote is just so so close. It’s going to be crazy.

Hunter Keaster: I mean, one one little light note that I think we get out there, I believe that this was the most votes that any presidential election has ever seen in American history. So, you know, voter turnout hitting record numbers. I mean, granted, still, I believe it was only 140 million or something like that.

Hayden Brown: That’s fantastic.

Hunter Keaster: Yeah. I mean, still really great, you know, huge numbers compared to past years. So

Hayden Brown: And it’s great to hear that a lot of Oak Park [High School] students here were also involved in the voting process. And they got to have their, say, an American government in one of the quintessential elections that they will probably take part in their lifetimes. They were able to finally vote in and they’re saying this is a crazy race. 

Hunter Keaster: For sure. I mean, I think, you know, looking forward, this election definitely poses a lot of extra challenges for everybody. COVID[-19] you know, but as long as I mean, a wins a win, you know, high voter turnout, I think we can all get behind that. A great thing for America. 

Hayden Brown: Yeah. And especially how this is going to change, future voting in the you know, just how everybody is able to you can do your voting from home now you can mail in your ballot, or you’re able to go out in person and do your voting that way. It’s [a] very, very different political climate that it was back in 2016. With the voting and and once again, it’s just going to be very, very interesting to see how this new systematic way that COVID[-19] affected the voting process ends up changing future elections and the future way that people are able to vote. 

Hunter Keaster: Yeah, for sure, and I think I’ll leave it on this just to respond to that point is, like  yeah, I think that this election was almost a stress test for a lot of states, mail by vote or vote by mail capabilities. You know, because some states, I think it was a Washington State, I believe they’ve, for many years only been able to vote by mail, like they don’t have polling sites. But whereas other states, you know, they were really not prepared for this influx of mail and votes. But it’ll be interesting, you know, in future elections, if it becomes a more common thing. What happens with it, but, you know, I don’t want to take too much of your time up here. So I think we can close on that. 

Hayden Brown: Sounds great. It has been an absolute pleasure to have you, Hunter.

Hunter Keaster: Thank you so much. Thanks so much for having me.

Hayden Brown: Of course. Thank you so much for joining us. For this EYE 2 EYE will have a lot more topics to discuss in the future, and will hopefully bring on some more guests that can have nice and even discussions where you’ll be able to see both their points of view and an underlying discussion, narrative, whatever. It’s going to be great. I’m super excited for the rest of this podcast series, and we’ll see you at the next one.